Daniel Becker, an assistant professor of biology in the University of Oklahoma’s Dodge Family College of Arts and Sciences, has been leading a proactive modeling study over the last year and a half to identify bat species that are likely to carry betacoronaviruses, including but not limited to SARS-like viruses.

The study “Optimizing predictive models to prioritize viral discovery in zoonotic reservoirs,” which was published by Lancet Microbe, was guided by Becker; Greg Albery, a postdoctoral fellow at Georgetown University’s Bansal Lab; and Colin J. Carlson, an assistant research professor at Georgetown’s Center for Global Health Science and Security.

It also included collaborators from the University of Idaho, Louisiana State University, University of California Berkeley, Colorado State University, Pacific Lutheran University, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, University of Glasgow, Université de Montréal, University of Toronto, Ghent University, University College Dublin, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, and the American Museum of Natural History.

Becker and colleagues’ study is part of the broader efforts of an international research team called the Verena Consortium (viralemergence.org), which works to predict which viruses could infect humans, which animals host them, and where they could emerge. Albery and Carlson were co-founders of the consortium in 2020, with Becker as a founding member.

Despite global investments in disease surveillance, it remains difficult to identify and monitor wildlife reservoirs of viruses that could someday infect humans. Statistical models are increasingly being used to prioritize which wildlife species to sample in the field, but the predictions being generated from any one model can be highly uncertain. Scientists also rarely track the success or failure of their predictions after they make them, making it hard to learn and make better models in the future. Together, these limitations mean that there is high uncertainty in which models may be best suited to the task.

In this study, researchers used bat hosts of betacoronaviruses, a large group of viruses that includes those responsible for SARS and COVID-19, as a case study for how to dynamically use data to compare and validate these predictive models of likely reservoir hosts. The study is the first to prove that machine learning models can optimize wildlife sampling for undiscovered viruses and illustrates how these models are best implemented through a dynamic process of prediction, data collection, validation and updating.

https://scitechdaily.com/artificial-intelligence-used-to-search-for-the-next-sars-cov-2/